MLB Future Best Bets
Every
year some of my favourite bets to make are the season long over/under bets on
team win totals, and hence it seems like a good place to start my planned regular
gambling column.
As
with any bets I recommend during the season, these are all purely hypothetical.
I’d of course never actually place any illegal bets. (Wink)
Unfortunately,
the team which I thought would be the surest bet on the board (the Yankees), I cant
find a line anywhere online. Presumably,
with all the injuries they’ve sustained during spring training, the books have
taken them down. It’s a real shame,
because I was hoping to absolutely hammer the under, because I think they are
in a for a huge fall this year.
San Diego
Padres – 74.5 - OVER
.png)
The Padres are probably the team
where my opinion differs the most from the conventional wisdom in the baseball
community. I have the Padres in the
mid-80s when it comes to wins. Their
pitching staff is one of the deepest in the league, featuring at least 10
starting pitchers who I see as MLB quality.
To go along with that, their lineup should finally feature some power
bats if Jedd Gyorko emerges at 2nd base, and once Yasmani Grandal
returns from his suspension.
To further read my thoughts on the
Padres, I wrote an entire team preview (which is extensive, and very thorough)
over at Blue Jays Plus.
http://www.bluejaysplus.com/2013/03/30-teams-in-30-days-san-diego-padres.html
The Padres spring training hasn’t been
what one would hope for. Their star
Chase Headley is doubtful for opening day, and starter Casey Kelly could be
headed towards major arm surgery.
However, even despite these setbacks, I am still very bullish on them
heading into the season. Their strong
depth allows them overcome these type of injuries more readily than
others. Even if the poor spring might
have tempered my expectations somewhat, it hasn’t gone far enough to drop them
lower than 80 wins.
Another reason that has made me even more confident about the Padres, was hearing Joe Sheehan agree with me that he was taking the Padres to win the West on the most recent version of the Rany & Joe Podcast. Knowing that one of the leading lights of the SABRmetric movement has my back is very reassuring.
While I may be out on a limb here, this
is the one of my bets that I feel the most confident about.
Philadelphia
Phillies – 84.5 - UNDER
I find this line VERY puzzling. The Phillies were a huge disappointment last
season, plummeting 21 wins down to 81.
While its easy to say that last season was a fluke, specifically because
of injuries, but I don’t see many reasons for optimism. During the hot stove season, they added two
of the worst starting players in the majors in the brothers Young (Delmon &
Michael)*, as well as trading for CF Ben Revere, and signing John Lannan to
patch over their pitching staff.
*Note, may not actually be brothers.
None
of those players inspires a lot of confidence in me, and when you couple those
less than stellar signings with spring struggles from Roy Halladay, and a 50
game suspension to backstop Carlos Ruiz, I see even more misery in store for
the aging Phils.
For
the Phillies to bounce back, they would need full seasons from perennially injured
Ryan Howard & Chase Utley, but also a breakthrough from failed prospect
Domonic Brown. That’s a very big
longshot. Take the under.
Toronto Blue
Jays - 88.5 - OVER
Full disclosure here, I’m a diehard
Blue Jays fan, but I don’t believe this prediction has anything to do with me
being a homer. Frankly, this prediction
has less to do with the Jays, and as much to do with how down I am on the
Yankees, and to a lesser extent the Red Sox.
Unlike past seasons where the AL East was seen as far and away the best
division in baseball. I don’t see that
being the case this year, where its occupied by a regressing Orioles squad, an injured
and aging Yankees team, a highly unpredictable Red Sox, & even a Rays team
always looking ahead to the future more than maximizing this year’s win total.
In addition to a weaker than normal
division, you cant look past the oodles and oodles of talent they’ve added this
offseason. By adding the likes of Reyes,
Johnson, Buehrle, Dickey, Cabrera, Bonifacio, & Izturis, the Jays have added
more than 20 wins to their bottom line (using Fangraphs WAR). Couple that with the possibility of full
seasons from Brett Lawrie, & Jose Bautista, I’m more than confident in
using 90 wins as their baseline. Since
90 is higher than 88, I’m betting on my Blue Jays to actually give me something
to cheer for this year.
Minnesota Twins –
68.5 - UNDER
After a decade of over achieving,
and punching above their small market weight, things have come crashing down in
the twin cities. The past two seasons,
they’ve roared past 90 losses, and despite having an offseason that I like in
the long run, should do absolutely nothing to improve their team short term.
Last year, the Twins were dead last
in FIP, in strikeout rate, and in pitching WAR.
In order to fix this problem, GM Terry Ryan decided to sign the worst
contract of the off-season in the 2 year, 10 million dollar contract to Kevin
Correia. That isn’t going to fix any
problems what-so-ever. To go with their
lacklustre collection of pitching talent, they also have what looks to be a
deficient offence this year as well. They
have a rookie penciled in CF (Aaron Hicks), a glove only shortstop (Pedro
Florimon), a AAAA players at both 2nd (Brian Dozier), and right
field (Chris Parmelee).
Even
despite all those factors I might still be tempted to take the over. However
the other factor that isn’t being included here, is that I see the Twins selling
off even more talent than they did this winter.
I think that by mid-season both Justin Morneau, and Josh Willingham will
be wearing a different uniform, and that is enough for me to expect yet another
90 loss season.
Future Bets
Oakland A’s to
win the AL West - +580
I’m not very confident that the
Athletics will win the division, however I do see the West as a wide open 3
team race, and given that situation the chance to get almost 6/1 that looks
like an excellent bet to me. The
Athletics are not only the defending West division champions, but I think they’ve
improved from the squad they were at the end of last season.
The
biggest flaw on their team in 2012 was their deficient infield, this year they’ve
changed their mix by adding a wide collection of talent, from all different areas. First they acquired Hiroyuki Nakajima from
the Seibu Lions, then they traded for Jed Lowrie from the Astros, and also has
Scott Sizemore returning from the disabled list. I think that some combination of those 3
should boost the their biggest weakness, but those are the only moves that I
like. They also made two excellent trades
to acquire the underrated John Jaso, and also toolsy centerfielder Chris
Young.
If
I can get a defending division champion, who I think has improved over the
off-season at over 6/1 then I cant pass that up.
San Diego Padres to win the NL West - +1500
For
all the same logic that I listed for taking the Padres as an over, I’m also
going out on a limb and saying that they may win the NL West. This here, is nothing but a pure value
bet. I don’t believe that the Padres are
the best team in their division, however I see it as a fairly even 4 horse race
between every team that isn’t based in Denver, and since that’s the case,
getting 15/1 odds means I cant possibly turn that down.
================================================
Those are my recommended bets from on the future market. My plan for the season is to have a daily list of bets which are mostly based on the starting pitchers starting that day. Anyway, this is just a start, and I hope you enjoyed it.
Of course, you can always follow me on Twitter (@Mentoch), and find the rest of my writing over at www.bluejaysplus.com
No comments:
Post a Comment